# arch.univariate.ZeroMean¶

class arch.univariate.ZeroMean(y=None, hold_back=None, volatility=None, distribution=None, rescale=None)[source]

Model with zero conditional mean estimation and simulation

Parameters
• y ({ndarray, Series}) – nobs element vector containing the dependent variable

• hold_back (int) – Number of observations at the start of the sample to exclude when estimating model parameters. Used when comparing models with different lag lengths to estimate on the common sample.

• volatility (VolatilityProcess, optional) – Volatility process to use in the model

• distribution (Distribution, optional) – Error distribution to use in the model

• rescale (bool, optional) – Flag indicating whether to automatically rescale data if the scale of the data is likely to produce convergence issues when estimating model parameters. If False, the model is estimated on the data without transformation. If True, than y is rescaled and the new scale is reported in the estimation results.

Examples

>>> import numpy as np
>>> from arch.univariate import ZeroMean
>>> y = np.random.randn(100)
>>> zm = ZeroMean(y)
>>> res = zm.fit()


Notes

The zero mean model is described by

$y_t = \epsilon_t$

Methods

 Construct bounds for parameters to use in non-linear optimization compute_param_cov(params[, backcast, robust]) Computes parameter covariances using numerical derivatives. Construct linear constraint arrays for use in non-linear optimization fit([update_freq, disp, starting_values, …]) Fits the model given a nobs by 1 vector of sigma2 values fix(params[, first_obs, last_obs]) Allows an ARCHModelFixedResult to be constructed from fixed parameters. forecast(params[, horizon, start, align, …]) Construct forecasts from estimated model List of parameters names resids(params[, y, regressors]) Compute model residuals simulate(params, nobs[, burn, …]) Simulated data from a zero mean model Returns starting values for the mean model, often the same as the values returned from fit

Properties

 distribution Set or gets the error distribution name The name of the model. num_params Returns the number of parameters volatility Set or gets the volatility process x Gets the value of the exogenous regressors in the model y Returns the dependent variable